Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
50%71%
Acend · 14 mapsedge BRUTE +21%BRUTE · 17 maps
MirageAcend pick
61%50%
Acend · 19 mapsedge Acend +11%BRUTE · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%64%
Acend · 10 mapsedge BRUTE +7%BRUTE · 7 maps
OverpassAcend ban
36%70%
Acend · 10 mapsedge BRUTE +34%BRUTE · 6 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
47%50%
Acend · 13 mapsnearly even -3%BRUTE · 0 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%56%
Acend · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 12 maps
CacheBRUTE ban
50%33%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +17%BRUTE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Cache
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (57% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Acend 26%BRUTE 74%
The model gave 74% on BRUTE — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Acend 64%BRUTE 36%
The model gave 64% on Acend — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Acend 50%BRUTE 50%
The model gave 50% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 69%
Series resultAcend 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3