CCT 2026 Europe Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#123 in the world · win 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Butterfly#132 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Butterfly pick
44%59%
Acend · 14 mapsedge Butterfly +15%Butterfly · 18 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
65%20%
Acend · 16 mapsedge Acend +45%Butterfly · 16 maps
AncientAcend pick
67%47%
Acend · 8 mapsedge Acend +20%Butterfly · 13 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%56%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +6%Butterfly · 21 map
MirageAcend ban
45%55%
Acend · 7 mapsedge Butterfly +10%Butterfly · 7 maps
CacheButterfly ban
29%57%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Butterfly +28%Butterfly · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
Acend · 2 mapsedge Butterfly +6%Butterfly · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanButterfly remove Inferno
3. PickAcend take Ancient
4. PickButterfly take Dust2
5. BanButterfly remove Cache
6. BanAcend remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
Acend 33%Butterfly 67%
The model gave 67% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Acend 89%Butterfly 11%
The model gave 89% on Acend — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Acend 69%Butterfly 31%
The model gave 69% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 52%
Series resultAcend 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3