BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAcend ban
50%50%
Acend · 4 mapsnearly even +0%CHAOS · 0 maps
MirageCHAOS ban
63%50%
Acend · 4 mapsedge Acend +13%CHAOS · 0 maps
DefaultCHAOS ban
50%29%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Acend +21%CHAOS · 3 maps
Dust2Acend ban
40%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge CHAOS +10%CHAOS · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +10%CHAOS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Dust2
2. BanCHAOS remove Default
3. BanAcend remove Ancient
4. BanCHAOS remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Acend 71%CHAOS 29%
The model gave 71% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 79%
Series resultAcend 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1