NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUBY pick
50%61%
Acend · 8 mapsedge ex-RUBY +11%ex-RUBY · 19 maps
MirageAcend pick
64%44%
Acend · 10 mapsedge Acend +20%ex-RUBY · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%40%
Acend · 5 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUBY · 11 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%80%
Acend · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +30%ex-RUBY · 16 maps
OverpassAcend ban
33%54%
Acend · 5 mapsedge ex-RUBY +21%ex-RUBY · 9 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
57%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +7%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
50%60%
Acend · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUBY take Dust2
5. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
6. BanAcend remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Acend 36%ex-RUBY 64%
The model gave 64% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Acend 72%ex-RUBY 28%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Overpassprediction correct3:13
Acend 30%ex-RUBY 70%
The model gave 70% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 52%
Series resultex-RUBY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3