Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gatorianloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAcend pick
60%60%
Acend · 1 mapnearly even +0%Gatorian · 1 map
MirageGatorian ban
60%50%
Acend · 1 mapedge Acend +10%Gatorian · 0 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%60%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Gatorian +10%Gatorian · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanGatorian remove Mirage
3. PickAcend take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Acend 47%Gatorian 53%
The model gave 53% on Gatorian — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction correct13:2
Acend 63%Gatorian 37%
The model gave 63% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 78%
Series resultAcend 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2