Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
56%50%
Acend · 21 mapedge Acend +6%NRG · 6 maps
AncientNRG ban
47%42%
Acend · 13 mapsedge Acend +5%NRG · 8 maps
Dust2Acend ban
53%57%
Acend · 15 mapsnearly even -4%NRG · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%56%
Acend · 11 mapsnearly even +4%NRG · 5 maps
OverpassNRG ban
36%40%
Acend · 10 mapsnearly even -4%NRG · 1 map
NukeAcend ban
50%54%
Acend · 0 mapsnearly even -4%NRG · 9 maps
CacheNRG pick
50%80%
Acend · 2 mapsedge NRG +30%NRG · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanNRG remove Overpass
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickNRG take Cache
5. BanNRG remove Ancient
6. BanAcend remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct2:13
Acend 18%NRG 82%
The model gave 82% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Acend 58%NRG 42%
The model gave 58% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Acend 56%NRG 44%
The model gave 56% on Acend — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 54%
Series resultNRG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3