Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
63%38%
Acend · 15 mapsedge Acend +25%Sharks · 4 maps
AncientSharks pick
46%60%
Acend · 9 mapsedge Sharks +14%Sharks · 6 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
53%50%
Acend · 13 mapsnearly even +3%Sharks · 0 maps
InfernoAcend ban
50%57%
Acend · 8 mapsedge Sharks +7%Sharks · 3 maps
NukeAcend ban
50%73%
Acend · 0 mapsedge Sharks +23%Sharks · 11 maps
OverpassSharks ban
33%29%
Acend · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Sharks · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
71%50%
Acend · 3 mapsedge Acend +21%Sharks · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAcend remove Nuke
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickAcend take Mirage
4. PickSharks take Ancient
5. BanSharks remove Overpass
6. BanAcend remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Acend 76%Sharks 24%
The model gave 76% on Acend — the map was taken by Sharks.
Anubisprediction missed13:9
Acend 47%Sharks 53%
The model gave 53% on Sharks — the map was taken by Acend.
Ancientprediction correct5:13
Acend 36%Sharks 64%
The model gave 64% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 63%
Series resultSharks 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3