PGL Bucharest 2027 Open Qualifier 1 · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2acidhouze ban
50%62%
acidhouze · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +12%Inner Circle Academy · 30 maps
Ancientacidhouze ban
50%50%
acidhouze · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 26 maps
Anubisacidhouze ban
50%61%
acidhouze · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Inner Circle Academy · 24 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
50%50%
acidhouze · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 18 maps
MirageInner Circle Academy ban
50%56%
acidhouze · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +6%Inner Circle Academy · 14 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
50%46%
acidhouze · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
acidhouze · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banacidhouze remove Dust2
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
3. Banacidhouze remove Anubis
4. BanInner Circle Academy remove Mirage
5. Banacidhouze remove Ancient
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
acidhouze 50%Inner Circle Academy 50%
The model gave 50% on acidhouze — the map was taken by acidhouze.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 74%
Series resultacidhouze 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1