KOKONISTER Pavlodar Ertis Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAimAssasins ban
40%50%
AimAssasins · 1 mapedge Orda +10%Orda · 0 maps
Dust2Orda ban
50%40%
AimAssasins · 0 mapsedge AimAssasins +10%Orda · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAimAssasins remove Ancient
2. BanOrda remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed1:13
AimAssasins 53%Orda 47%
The model gave 53% on AimAssasins — the map was taken by Orda.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
AimAssasins 57%Orda 43%
The model gave 57% on AimAssasins — the map was taken by Orda.
Model check result
Model favoriteAimAssasins · 50%
Series resultOrda 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2