XP Game Fest 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
aimclub#98 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientaimclub ban
50%40%
aimclub · 0 mapsedge aimclub +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%40%
aimclub · 0 mapsedge aimclub +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banaimclub remove Ancient
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
aimclub 63%BASEMENT BOYS 37%
The model gave 63% on aimclub — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
aimclub 47%BASEMENT BOYS 53%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by aimclub.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
aimclub 50%BASEMENT BOYS 50%
The model gave 50% on aimclub — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 51%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3