Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 3:13series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 3:13
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 13:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
67%55%
Aimhaus · 2 mapsedge Aimhaus +12%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
67%44%
Aimhaus · 2 mapsedge Aimhaus +23%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
CacheAimhaus ban
50%60%
Aimhaus · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
60%38%
Aimhaus · 1 mapedge Aimhaus +22%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
AnubisAimhaus ban
50%44%
Aimhaus · 0 mapsedge Aimhaus +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%57%
Aimhaus · 1 mapnearly even +3%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
DefaultAimhaus ban
50%60%
Aimhaus · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAimhaus remove Cache
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
3. BanAimhaus remove Default
4. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
5. BanAimhaus remove Anubis
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
Aimhaus 56%HYPERSPIRIT 44%
The model gave 56% on Aimhaus — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteHYPERSPIRIT · 71%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 3:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1