Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Aimhaus#381 in the world · loss 2:13series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:13
Sangal#48 in the world · win 13:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Sangal ban
67%33%
Aimhaus · 2 mapsedge Aimhaus +34%Sangal · 5 maps
CacheAimhaus ban
50%60%
Aimhaus · 0 mapsedge Sangal +10%Sangal · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%44%
Aimhaus · 1 mapedge Aimhaus +16%Sangal · 5 maps
NukeAimhaus ban
50%67%
Aimhaus · 0 mapsedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 5 maps
AncientSangal ban
60%43%
Aimhaus · 1 mapedge Aimhaus +17%Sangal · 3 maps
AnubisAimhaus ban
40%57%
Aimhaus · 1 mapedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 3 maps
InfernoSangal ban
67%50%
Aimhaus · 2 mapsedge Aimhaus +17%Sangal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAimhaus remove Cache
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. BanAimhaus remove Nuke
4. BanSangal remove Ancient
5. BanAimhaus remove Anubis
6. BanSangal remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (60% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct2:13
Aimhaus 33%Sangal 67%
The model gave 67% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteSangal · 86%
Series resultSangal 2:13
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1