United21 League Season 48 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BIG Academy#215 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBIG Academy pick
50%67%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge BIG Academy +17%BIG Academy · 5 maps
Dust2ALGO ban
50%50%
ALGO · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 4 maps
MirageALGO ban
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
40%67%
ALGO · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +27%BIG Academy · 2 maps
AnubisALGO pick
40%40%
ALGO · 1 mapnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 1 map
InfernoBIG Academy ban
50%50%
ALGO · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BIG Academy · 2 maps
DefaultBIG Academy ban
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge BIG Academy +10%BIG Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Dust2
2. BanBIG Academy remove Inferno
3. PickALGO take Anubis
4. PickBIG Academy take Ancient
5. BanBIG Academy remove Default
6. BanALGO remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (40% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed12:16
ALGO 53%BIG Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on ALGO — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
ALGO 23%BIG Academy 77%
The model gave 77% on BIG Academy — the map was taken by BIG Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteBIG Academy · 51%
Series resultBIG Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2