Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%44%
ALGO · 8 mapsedge ALGO +6%KOLESIE · 5 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
36%50%
ALGO · 10 mapsedge KOLESIE +14%KOLESIE · 2 maps
NukeALGO pick
62%57%
ALGO · 9 mapsedge ALGO +5%KOLESIE · 3 maps
MirageALGO ban
30%50%
ALGO · 6 mapsedge KOLESIE +20%KOLESIE · 2 maps
OverpassKOLESIE pick
43%56%
ALGO · 3 mapsedge KOLESIE +13%KOLESIE · 5 maps
InfernoKOLESIE ban
64%50%
ALGO · 7 mapsedge ALGO +14%KOLESIE · 0 maps
Dust2ALGO ban
50%43%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge ALGO +7%KOLESIE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Mirage
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. PickALGO take Nuke
4. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanALGO remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
ALGO 33%KOLESIE 67%
The model gave 67% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Overpassprediction correct8:13
ALGO 35%KOLESIE 65%
The model gave 65% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 69%
Series resultKOLESIE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2