CCT 2026 South America Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Blitzkrieg pick
50%22%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge ALKA +28%Blitzkrieg · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%33%
ALKA · 4 mapsedge ALKA +17%Blitzkrieg · 2 maps
NukeALKA pick
63%33%
ALKA · 4 mapsedge ALKA +30%Blitzkrieg · 2 maps
InfernoBlitzkrieg ban
57%50%
ALKA · 3 mapsedge ALKA +7%Blitzkrieg · 0 maps
AnubisALKA ban
40%40%
ALKA · 1 mapnearly even +0%Blitzkrieg · 1 map
DefaultALKA ban
40%60%
ALKA · 1 mapedge Blitzkrieg +20%Blitzkrieg · 1 map
AncientBlitzkrieg ban
60%50%
ALKA · 1 mapedge ALKA +10%Blitzkrieg · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Anubis
2. BanBlitzkrieg remove Inferno
3. PickALKA take Nuke
4. PickBlitzkrieg take Dust2
5. BanBlitzkrieg remove Ancient
6. BanALKA remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
ALKA 76%Blitzkrieg 24%
The model gave 76% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
ALKA 63%Blitzkrieg 37%
The model gave 63% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 60%
Series resultALKA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2