ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
68%53%
ALKA · 27 mapsedge ALKA +15%MEIA NOITE · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
42%33%
ALKA · 22 mapsedge ALKA +9%MEIA NOITE · 14 maps
NukeALKA ban
50%50%
ALKA · 12 mapsnearly even +0%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
MirageMEIA NOITE ban
57%38%
ALKA · 10 mapsedge ALKA +19%MEIA NOITE · 9 maps
InfernoALKA ban
53%50%
ALKA · 11 mapsnearly even +3%MEIA NOITE · 4 maps
CacheMEIA NOITE ban
45%33%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +12%MEIA NOITE · 5 maps
DefaultMEIA NOITE pick
40%67%
ALKA · 1 mapedge MEIA NOITE +27%MEIA NOITE · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Inferno
2. BanMEIA NOITE remove Cache
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickMEIA NOITE take Default
5. BanMEIA NOITE remove Mirage
6. BanALKA remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (42% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
ALKA 57%MEIA NOITE 43%
The model gave 57% on ALKA — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
ALKA 68%MEIA NOITE 32%
The model gave 68% on ALKA — the map was taken by MEIA NOITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 76%
Series resultMEIA NOITE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2