Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Turma do Pagode#91 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
64%50%
ALKA · 21 mapedge ALKA +14%Turma do Pagode · 8 maps
AncientTurma do Pagode pick
45%57%
ALKA · 16 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +12%Turma do Pagode · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%50%
ALKA · 12 mapsedge ALKA +13%Turma do Pagode · 4 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%50%
ALKA · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Turma do Pagode · 2 maps
NukeTurma do Pagode ban
55%40%
ALKA · 7 mapsedge ALKA +15%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
CacheTurma do Pagode ban
50%60%
ALKA · 6 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +10%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
DefaultALKA ban
33%40%
ALKA · 2 mapsedge Turma do Pagode +7%Turma do Pagode · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALKA remove Mirage
2. BanTurma do Pagode remove Nuke
3. PickALKA take Dust2
4. PickTurma do Pagode take Ancient
5. BanTurma do Pagode remove Cache
6. BanALKA remove Default
DeciderInferno (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
ALKA 67%Turma do Pagode 33%
The model gave 67% on ALKA — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Ancientprediction correct12:16
ALKA 35%Turma do Pagode 65%
The model gave 65% on Turma do Pagode — the map was taken by Turma do Pagode.
Model check result
Model favoriteTurma do Pagode · 65%
Series resultTurma do Pagode 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2