RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#29 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FaZe#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAlliance pick
56%38%
Alliance · 5 mapsedge Alliance +18%FaZe · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
25%33%
Alliance · 4 mapsedge FaZe +8%FaZe · 8 maps
NukeFaZe pick
57%69%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge FaZe +12%FaZe · 9 maps
CacheAlliance ban
25%55%
Alliance · 4 mapsedge FaZe +30%FaZe · 7 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
46%50%
Alliance · 9 mapsnearly even -4%FaZe · 0 maps
MirageAlliance ban
40%64%
Alliance · 1 mapedge FaZe +24%FaZe · 7 maps
AnubisFaZe ban
50%44%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Alliance +6%FaZe · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. PickAlliance take Ancient
4. PickFaZe take Nuke
5. BanFaZe remove Anubis
6. BanAlliance remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (25% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Alliance 69%FaZe 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the map was taken by FaZe.
Mirageprediction correct2:13
Alliance 25%FaZe 75%
The model gave 75% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Model check result
Model favoriteFaZe · 61%
Series resultFaZe 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2