BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#21 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nuclear TigeRES pick
60%60%
Alliance · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
AnubisAlliance ban
50%60%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 1 map
InfernoAlliance pick
60%50%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Alliance +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
40%50%
Alliance · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Anubis
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
Alliance 47%Nuclear TigeRES 53%
The model gave 53% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Alliance 43%Nuclear TigeRES 57%
The model gave 57% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 55%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2