FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance#50 in the world · win 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TYLOO#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
73%45%
Alliance · 11 mapsedge Alliance +28%TYLOO · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
69%70%
Alliance · 9 mapsnearly even -1%TYLOO · 6 maps
NukeTYLOO ban
64%38%
Alliance · 7 mapsedge Alliance +26%TYLOO · 4 maps
MirageAlliance ban
50%77%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +27%TYLOO · 9 maps
AnubisAlliance ban
43%50%
Alliance · 3 mapsedge TYLOO +7%TYLOO · 2 maps
Dust2TYLOO ban
44%50%
Alliance · 5 mapsedge TYLOO +6%TYLOO · 0 maps
CacheTYLOO pick
50%67%
Alliance · 0 mapsedge TYLOO +17%TYLOO · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlliance remove Mirage
2. BanTYLOO remove Dust2
3. PickAlliance take Inferno
4. PickTYLOO take Cache
5. BanTYLOO remove Nuke
6. BanAlliance remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (69% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Alliance 75%TYLOO 25%
The model gave 75% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Alliance 52%TYLOO 48%
The model gave 52% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteTYLOO · 59%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2