ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Chinggis Warriors#116 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
63%50%
Alter Ego · 12 mapsedge Alter Ego +13%Chinggis Warriors · 12 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%60%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +10%Chinggis Warriors · 21 map
Ancientpossible decider
67%56%
Alter Ego · 8 mapsedge Alter Ego +11%Chinggis Warriors · 14 maps
InfernoChinggis Warriors pick
57%63%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Chinggis Warriors +6%Chinggis Warriors · 15 maps
MirageAlter Ego ban
63%60%
Alter Ego · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Chinggis Warriors · 6 maps
CacheChinggis Warriors ban
67%50%
Alter Ego · 5 mapsedge Alter Ego +17%Chinggis Warriors · 2 maps
AnubisChinggis Warriors ban
60%29%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Alter Ego +31%Chinggis Warriors · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanChinggis Warriors remove Anubis
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickChinggis Warriors take Inferno
5. BanChinggis Warriors remove Cache
6. BanAlter Ego remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (67% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Alter Ego 41%Chinggis Warriors 59%
The model gave 59% on Chinggis Warriors — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Alter Ego 65%Chinggis Warriors 35%
The model gave 65% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteChinggis Warriors · 54%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2