DFRAG Invitational 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FlyQuest#66 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
65%82%
Alter Ego · 16 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 13 maps
InfernoFlyQuest pick
64%75%
Alter Ego · 7 mapsedge FlyQuest +11%FlyQuest · 16 maps
AncientFlyQuest ban
71%50%
Alter Ego · 10 mapsedge Alter Ego +21%FlyQuest · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%71%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even -4%FlyQuest · 10 maps
CacheFlyQuest ban
60%78%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge FlyQuest +18%FlyQuest · 5 maps
DefaultAlter Ego ban
43%50%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%FlyQuest · 2 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%71%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsedge FlyQuest +21%FlyQuest · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickFlyQuest take Inferno
5. BanFlyQuest remove Cache
6. BanAlter Ego remove Default
DeciderAnubis (67% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Alter Ego 74%FlyQuest 26%
The model gave 74% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Alter Ego 34%FlyQuest 66%
The model gave 66% on FlyQuest — the map was taken by FlyQuest.
Model check result
Model favoriteFlyQuest · 65%
Series resultFlyQuest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2