ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alter Ego#120 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legion#206 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Alter Ego pick
58%33%
Alter Ego · 8 mapsedge Alter Ego +25%Legion · 8 maps
AncientLegion ban
60%50%
Alter Ego · 6 mapsedge Alter Ego +10%Legion · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
71%29%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +42%Legion · 3 maps
MirageLegion pick
57%71%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Legion +14%Legion · 3 maps
InfernoLegion ban
57%33%
Alter Ego · 3 mapsedge Alter Ego +24%Legion · 2 maps
NukeAlter Ego ban
50%50%
Alter Ego · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Legion · 2 maps
AnubisAlter Ego ban
40%50%
Alter Ego · 1 mapedge Legion +10%Legion · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAlter Ego remove Nuke
2. BanLegion remove Ancient
3. PickAlter Ego take Dust2
4. PickLegion take Mirage
5. BanLegion remove Inferno
6. BanAlter Ego remove Anubis
DeciderCache (71% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
Alter Ego 71%Legion 29%
The model gave 71% on Alter Ego — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Alter Ego 43%Legion 57%
The model gave 57% on Legion — the map was taken by Alter Ego.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlter Ego · 60%
Series resultAlter Ego 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2