BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%56%
AM · 2 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +6%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
AncientAM ban
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%CYBERSHOKE · 4 maps
Dust2AM pick
50%56%
AM · 0 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +6%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
NukeAM ban
43%60%
AM · 3 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +17%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
67%50%
AM · 2 mapsedge AM +17%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
OverpassCYBERSHOKE ban
60%40%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +20%CYBERSHOKE · 1 map
DefaultCYBERSHOKE pick
60%50%
AM · 1 mapedge AM +10%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Ancient
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Dust2
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Default
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Overpass
6. BanAM remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
AM 57%CYBERSHOKE 43%
The model gave 57% on AM — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Overpassprediction correct16:12
AM 72%CYBERSHOKE 28%
The model gave 72% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
AM 44%CYBERSHOKE 56%
The model gave 56% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by CYBERSHOKE.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 53%
Series resultCYBERSHOKE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3