Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
AM · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
AncientAM ban
31%58%
AM · 9 mapsedge Eternal Fire +27%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire pick
21%55%
AM · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +34%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
53%57%
AM · 13 mapsnearly even -4%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
OverpassAM pick
71%50%
AM · 10 mapsedge AM +21%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
InfernoEternal Fire ban
60%50%
AM · 6 mapsedge AM +10%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%44%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +6%Eternal Fire · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanEternal Fire remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Overpass
4. PickEternal Fire take Dust2
5. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
6. BanAM remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
AM 17%Eternal Fire 83%
The model gave 83% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by AM.
Overpassprediction missed8:13
AM 74%Eternal Fire 26%
The model gave 74% on AM — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
AM 46%Eternal Fire 54%
The model gave 54% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 57%
Series resultAM 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3