NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
25%60%
AM · 8 mapsedge ex-RUBY +35%ex-RUBY · 16 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
54%88%
AM · 9 mapsedge ex-RUBY +34%ex-RUBY · 12 maps
AncientAM ban
36%43%
AM · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +7%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
64%43%
AM · 7 mapsedge AM +21%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
OverpassAM pick
70%50%
AM · 6 mapsedge AM +20%ex-RUBY · 8 maps
Infernoex-RUBY ban
60%50%
AM · 6 mapsedge AM +10%ex-RUBY · 0 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%60%
AM · 0 mapsedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUBY remove Inferno
3. PickAM take Overpass
4. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
5. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
6. BanAM remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (25% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
AM 13%ex-RUBY 87%
The model gave 87% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by AM.
Mirageprediction correct19:16
AM 72%ex-RUBY 28%
The model gave 72% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 57%
Series resultAM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2