BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
22%59%
AM · 5 mapsedge GenOne +37%GenOne · 13 maps
NukeAM ban
50%56%
AM · 6 mapsedge GenOne +6%GenOne · 12 maps
AncientGenOne ban
50%45%
AM · 4 mapsedge AM +5%GenOne · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%70%
AM · 4 mapsedge GenOne +7%GenOne · 6 maps
OverpassAM pick
71%40%
AM · 3 mapsedge AM +31%GenOne · 6 maps
MirageGenOne ban
57%50%
AM · 3 mapsedge AM +7%GenOne · 0 maps
AnubisAM ban
50%50%
AM · 0 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickAM take Overpass
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Ancient
6. BanAM remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (63% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
AM 15%GenOne 85%
The model gave 85% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Overpassprediction correct13:8
AM 81%GenOne 19%
The model gave 81% on AM — the map was taken by AM.
Nukeprediction missed22:18
AM 44%GenOne 56%
The model gave 56% on GenOne — the map was taken by AM.
Model check result
Model favoriteAM · 51%
Series resultAM 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3