NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AM#72 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Walczaki#58 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisAM ban
50%60%
AM · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 1 map
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%40%
AM · 0 mapsedge AM +10%Walczaki · 1 map
NukeAM pick
50%60%
AM · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAM remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickAM take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
AM 47%Walczaki 53%
The model gave 53% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
AM 63%Walczaki 37%
The model gave 63% on AM — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 58%
Series resultWalczaki 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2