DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Arcade#198 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Abyssal#165 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoArcade ban
50%50%
Arcade · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 4 maps
MirageArcade pick
60%43%
Arcade · 1 mapedge Arcade +17%Abyssal · 3 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
40%43%
Arcade · 1 mapnearly even -3%Abyssal · 3 maps
Dust2Abyssal ban
43%50%
Arcade · 3 mapsedge Abyssal +7%Abyssal · 0 maps
OverpassArcade ban
50%50%
Arcade · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 2 maps
CacheAbyssal pick
60%50%
Arcade · 1 mapedge Arcade +10%Abyssal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArcade remove Inferno
2. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
3. PickArcade take Mirage
4. PickAbyssal take Cache
5. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
6. BanArcade remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Arcade 64%Abyssal 36%
The model gave 64% on Arcade — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Nukeprediction correct13:7
Arcade 50%Abyssal 50%
The model gave 50% on Arcade — the map was taken by Arcade.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
Arcade 60%Abyssal 40%
The model gave 60% on Arcade — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Model check result
Model favoriteArcade · 65%
Series resultAbyssal 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3