ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
Arch#247 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
67%57%
Arch · 2 mapsedge Arch +10%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
Dust2OLDBOYS PL ban
57%33%
Arch · 3 mapsedge Arch +24%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
MirageArch pick
50%57%
Arch · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +7%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%50%
Arch · 2 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +17%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
NukeArch ban
50%71%
Arch · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +21%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
DefaultArch ban
50%60%
Arch · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
50%60%
Arch · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArch remove Nuke
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
3. PickArch take Mirage
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Dust2
6. BanArch remove Default
DeciderAnubis (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct10:13
Arch 36%OLDBOYS PL 64%
The model gave 64% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Arch 40%OLDBOYS PL 60%
The model gave 60% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by Arch.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Arch 73%OLDBOYS PL 27%
The model gave 73% on Arch — the map was taken by Arch.
Model check result
Model favoriteArch · 59%
Series resultArch 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3