NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Acend#125 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
50%67%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge Acend +17%Acend · 11 maps
Dust2Acend ban
71%46%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +25%Acend · 9 maps
AncientARCRED ban
33%44%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge Acend +11%Acend · 5 maps
OverpassAcend ban
50%30%
ARCRED · 0 mapsedge ARCRED +20%Acend · 6 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
63%50%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge ARCRED +13%Acend · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%57%
ARCRED · 1 mapnearly even +3%Acend · 3 maps
NukeARCRED ban
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanAcend remove Overpass
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Dust2
6. BanARCRED remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
ARCRED 50%Acend 50%
The model gave 50% on ARCRED — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteAcend · 57%
Series resultAcend 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1