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1xBet FRAG Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bushido Wildcats#82 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bushido Wildcats pick
64%71%
ARCRED · 7 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +7%Bushido Wildcats · 47 maps
MirageARCRED ban
38%57%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +19%Bushido Wildcats · 36 maps
NukeARCRED ban
40%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +10%Bushido Wildcats · 30 maps
CacheBushido Wildcats ban
40%59%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge Bushido Wildcats +19%Bushido Wildcats · 18 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
75%50%
ARCRED · 4 mapsedge ARCRED +25%Bushido Wildcats · 12 maps
InfernoBushido Wildcats ban
60%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge ARCRED +10%Bushido Wildcats · 14 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%73%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Bushido Wildcats +23%Bushido Wildcats · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanBushido Wildcats remove Inferno
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. PickBushido Wildcats take Dust2
5. BanBushido Wildcats remove Cache
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
ARCRED 33%Bushido Wildcats 67%
The model gave 67% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
ARCRED 37%Bushido Wildcats 63%
The model gave 63% on Bushido Wildcats — the map was taken by Bushido Wildcats.
Model check result
Model favoriteBushido Wildcats · 61%
Series resultBushido Wildcats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2