Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageARCRED ban
30%56%
ARCRED · 6 mapsedge Endless Journey +26%Endless Journey · 12 maps
Dust2Endless Journey pick
64%71%
ARCRED · 7 mapsedge Endless Journey +7%Endless Journey · 10 maps
AncientEndless Journey ban
20%33%
ARCRED · 6 mapsedge Endless Journey +13%Endless Journey · 5 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
73%38%
ARCRED · 7 mapsedge ARCRED +35%Endless Journey · 4 maps
NukeARCRED ban
43%55%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge Endless Journey +12%Endless Journey · 7 maps
InfernoARCRED pick
67%40%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge ARCRED +27%Endless Journey · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%56%
ARCRED · 2 mapsedge Endless Journey +6%Endless Journey · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickARCRED take Inferno
4. PickEndless Journey take Dust2
5. BanEndless Journey remove Ancient
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
ARCRED 44%Endless Journey 56%
The model gave 56% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 56%
Series resultEndless Journey 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1