WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ARCRED#121 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientflacons pick
33%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge flacons +17%flacons · 0 maps
AnubisARCRED pick
67%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge ARCRED +17%flacons · 0 maps
MirageARCRED ban
44%50%
ARCRED · 5 mapsedge flacons +6%flacons · 0 maps
Dust2flacons ban
71%50%
ARCRED · 3 mapsedge ARCRED +21%flacons · 0 maps
Defaultflacons ban
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%flacons · 0 maps
NukeARCRED ban
50%50%
ARCRED · 2 mapsnearly even +0%flacons · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
40%50%
ARCRED · 1 mapedge flacons +10%flacons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanARCRED remove Nuke
2. Banflacons remove Dust2
3. PickARCRED take Anubis
4. Pickflacons take Ancient
5. Banflacons remove Default
6. BanARCRED remove Mirage
DeciderCache (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:0
ARCRED 64%flacons 36%
The model gave 64% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Dust2prediction correct13:0
ARCRED 74%flacons 26%
The model gave 74% on ARCRED — the map was taken by ARCRED.
Model check result
Model favoriteARCRED · 74%
Series resultARCRED 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2