FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionAPArena Proloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBARCA#95 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BARCA ban
40%29%
Arena Pro · 1 mapedge Arena Pro +11%BARCA · 3 maps
AncientArena Pro pick
50%33%
Arena Pro · 0 mapsedge Arena Pro +17%BARCA · 2 maps
InfernoArena Pro ban
50%67%
Arena Pro · 0 mapsedge BARCA +17%BARCA · 2 maps
MirageBARCA ban
40%40%
Arena Pro · 1 mapnearly even +0%BARCA · 1 map
CacheBARCA pick
50%60%
Arena Pro · 0 mapsedge BARCA +10%BARCA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanArena Pro remove Inferno
2. BanBARCA remove Mirage
3. PickArena Pro take Ancient
4. PickBARCA take Cache
5. BanBARCA remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Arena Pro 65%BARCA 35%
The model gave 65% on Arena Pro — the map was taken by BARCA.
Infernoprediction correct1:13
Arena Pro 31%BARCA 69%
The model gave 69% on BARCA — the map was taken by BARCA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBARCA · 71%
Series resultBARCA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2