Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#104 in the world · win 13:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 13:2
Leo#83 in the world · loss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeASTRAL ban
54%88%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge Leo +34%Leo · 30 maps
Dust2possible decider
30%37%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge Leo +7%Leo · 31 map
AncientLeo ban
56%40%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge ASTRAL +16%Leo · 21 map
CacheASTRAL ban
44%57%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsedge Leo +13%Leo · 17 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
38%35%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Leo · 13 maps
AnubisLeo ban
43%33%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%Leo · 11 maps
DefaultLeo ban
67%22%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +45%Leo · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanLeo remove Anubis
3. BanASTRAL remove Cache
4. BanLeo remove Default
5. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
6. BanLeo remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (30% / 37%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:2
ASTRAL 38%Leo 62%
The model gave 63% on Leo — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 59%
Series resultASTRAL 13:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1