NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MANA#86 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
65%22%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsedge ASTRAL +43%MANA · 5 maps
MirageMANA pick
58%50%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +8%MANA · 8 maps
Dust2ASTRAL ban
45%45%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsnearly even +0%MANA · 7 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
33%50%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge MANA +17%MANA · 2 maps
AnubisMANA ban
71%50%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%MANA · 4 maps
NukeMANA ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MANA · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%MANA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. BanMANA remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickMANA take Mirage
5. BanMANA remove Nuke
6. BanASTRAL remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct12:16
ASTRAL 47%MANA 53%
The model gave 53% on MANA — the map was taken by MANA.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
ASTRAL 88%MANA 12%
The model gave 88% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
ASTRAL 58%MANA 42%
The model gave 58% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 72%
Series resultMANA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3