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Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#17 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle#39 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
70%50%
Astralis · 16 mapsedge Astralis +20%Inner Circle · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
65%60%
Astralis · 13 mapsedge Astralis +5%Inner Circle · 6 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
50%45%
Astralis · 10 mapsedge Astralis +5%Inner Circle · 7 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
50%58%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge Inner Circle +8%Inner Circle · 8 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
40%40%
Astralis · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle · 6 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
43%50%
Astralis · 10 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%Inner Circle · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%40%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%Inner Circle · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickInner Circle take Mirage
5. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderCache (65% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed14:16
Astralis 72%Inner Circle 28%
The model gave 72% on Astralis — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Astralis 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
Astralis 55%Inner Circle 45%
The model gave 55% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 68%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3