IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
38%50%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge paiN +12%paiN · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%63%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge paiN +20%paiN · 4 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
33%44%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge paiN +11%paiN · 5 maps
MirageAstralis ban
57%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +7%paiN · 2 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%63%
Astralis · 0 mapsedge paiN +13%paiN · 4 maps
AncientpaiN ban
57%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +7%paiN · 0 maps
InfernoAstralis pick
50%40%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Astralis +10%paiN · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickAstralis take Inferno
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Overpass
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (43% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Astralis 35%paiN 65%
The model gave 65% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Overpassprediction correct4:13
Astralis 41%paiN 59%
The model gave 59% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 59%
Series resultpaiN 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2