European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
82%44%
Atreides · 13 mapsedge Atreides +38%eternal premium · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
54%60%
Atreides · 9 mapsedge eternal premium +6%eternal premium · 6 maps
Nukeeternal premium pick
56%50%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +6%eternal premium · 8 maps
Infernoeternal premium ban
54%57%
Atreides · 9 mapsnearly even -3%eternal premium · 3 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
43%60%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge eternal premium +17%eternal premium · 1 map
Dust2Atreides ban
36%40%
Atreides · 7 mapsnearly even -4%eternal premium · 1 map
Defaulteternal premium ban
55%50%
Atreides · 7 mapsedge Atreides +5%eternal premium · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Dust2
2. Baneternal premium remove Default
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. Picketernal premium take Nuke
5. Baneternal premium remove Inferno
6. BanAtreides remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (54% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Atreides 84%eternal premium 16%
The model gave 84% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Atreides 50%eternal premium 50%
The model gave 50% on eternal premium — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 54%
Series resultAtreides 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2