ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
84%53%
Atreides · 15 mapsedge Atreides +31%Just Players · 11 maps
AncientJust Players pick
54%50%
Atreides · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Just Players · 10 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
36%36%
Atreides · 7 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 10 maps
OverpassAtreides ban
43%60%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge Just Players +17%Just Players · 6 maps
NukeJust Players ban
56%42%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +14%Just Players · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
55%50%
Atreides · 7 mapsedge Atreides +5%Just Players · 4 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
57%50%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge Atreides +7%Just Players · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Dust2
2. BanJust Players remove Inferno
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. PickJust Players take Ancient
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanAtreides remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (55% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Atreides 84%Just Players 16%
The model gave 84% on Atreides — the map was taken by Just Players.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Atreides 51%Just Players 49%
The model gave 51% on Atreides — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 51%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2