European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Atreides ban
36%58%
Atreides · 7 mapsedge SPARTA +22%SPARTA · 22 maps
MirageAtreides pick
83%47%
Atreides · 14 mapsedge Atreides +36%SPARTA · 13 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
54%29%
Atreides · 9 mapsedge Atreides +25%SPARTA · 13 maps
NukeAtreides ban
56%50%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +6%SPARTA · 14 maps
InfernoSPARTA ban
57%50%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge Atreides +7%SPARTA · 8 maps
OverpassSPARTA pick
43%45%
Atreides · 10 mapsnearly even -2%SPARTA · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
55%33%
Atreides · 7 mapsedge Atreides +22%SPARTA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Dust2
2. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. PickSPARTA take Overpass
5. BanSPARTA remove Inferno
6. BanAtreides remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (55% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:1
Atreides 47%SPARTA 53%
The model gave 53% on SPARTA — the map was taken by Atreides.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Atreides 53%SPARTA 47%
The model gave 53% on Atreides — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Atreides 85%SPARTA 15%
The model gave 85% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteSPARTA · 66%
Series resultAtreides 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3