CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNC#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
77%61%
Atreides · 9 mapsedge Atreides +16%TNC · 14 maps
AncientAtreides ban
58%53%
Atreides · 8 mapsedge Atreides +5%TNC · 13 maps
NukeTNC pick
57%58%
Atreides · 3 mapsnearly even -1%TNC · 15 maps
Dust2TNC ban
33%33%
Atreides · 5 mapsnearly even +0%TNC · 11 maps
OverpassTNC ban
38%33%
Atreides · 9 mapsedge Atreides +5%TNC · 5 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
50%57%
Atreides · 0 mapsedge TNC +7%TNC · 10 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%38%
Atreides · 3 mapsedge Atreides +19%TNC · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Anubis
2. BanTNC remove Overpass
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. PickTNC take Nuke
5. BanTNC remove Dust2
6. BanAtreides remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
Atreides 46%TNC 54%
The model gave 54% on TNC — the map was taken by Atreides.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Atreides 71%TNC 29%
The model gave 71% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 56%
Series resultAtreides 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2