IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9z#17 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aurora pick
50%54%
Aurora · 6 mapsnearly even -4%9z · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%60%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge 9z +20%9z · 6 maps
Overpass9z pick
67%73%
Aurora · 2 mapsedge 9z +6%9z · 7 maps
Mirage9z ban
60%36%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Aurora +24%9z · 7 maps
InfernoAurora ban
50%55%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge 9z +5%9z · 7 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%56%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge 9z +6%9z · 5 maps
Anubis9z ban
63%40%
Aurora · 4 mapsedge Aurora +23%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Mirage
6. BanAurora remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
Aurora 28%9z 72%
The model gave 72% on 9z — the map was taken by Aurora.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Aurora 49%9z 51%
The model gave 51% on 9z — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 74%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2