ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM#13 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%57%
Aurora · 12 mapsnearly even -1%BETBOOM · 3 maps
AnubisBETBOOM pick
58%56%
Aurora · 8 mapsnearly even +2%BETBOOM · 5 maps
CacheBETBOOM ban
50%50%
Aurora · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 4 maps
NukeAurora pick
80%43%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +37%BETBOOM · 3 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
55%50%
Aurora · 7 mapsedge Aurora +5%BETBOOM · 0 maps
Dust2Aurora ban
50%50%
Aurora · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BETBOOM · 0 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%43%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even -3%BETBOOM · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
3. PickAurora take Nuke
4. PickBETBOOM take Anubis
5. BanBETBOOM remove Cache
6. BanAurora remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
Aurora 46%BETBOOM 54%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by Aurora.
Nukeprediction missed7:13
Aurora 86%BETBOOM 14%
The model gave 86% on Aurora — the map was taken by BETBOOM.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Aurora 53%BETBOOM 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 66%
Series resultAurora 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3