IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFURIA ban
50%50%
Aurora · 8 mapsnearly even +0%FURIA · 6 maps
Dust2Aurora pick
55%33%
Aurora · 7 mapsedge Aurora +22%FURIA · 5 maps
MirageAurora ban
60%64%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even -4%FURIA · 7 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
67%70%
Aurora · 2 mapsnearly even -3%FURIA · 6 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
67%50%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Aurora +17%FURIA · 0 maps
InfernoAurora ban
50%67%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge FURIA +17%FURIA · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Mirage
2. BanFURIA remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. PickFURIA take Overpass
5. BanFURIA remove Nuke
6. BanAurora remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Aurora 73%FURIA 27%
The model gave 73% on Aurora — the map was taken by FURIA.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Aurora 47%FURIA 53%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 57%
Series resultFURIA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2