IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2#7 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aurora pick
50%38%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +12%G2 · 9 maps
MirageAurora ban
60%58%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even +2%G2 · 8 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
Aurora · 0 mapsnearly even +0%G2 · 8 maps
NukeG2 ban
40%50%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge G2 +10%G2 · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%56%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge G2 +6%G2 · 5 maps
OverpassG2 pick
60%75%
Aurora · 1 mapedge G2 +15%G2 · 4 maps
AnubisG2 ban
57%40%
Aurora · 3 mapsedge Aurora +17%G2 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanG2 remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. PickG2 take Overpass
5. BanG2 remove Nuke
6. BanAurora remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed13:8
Aurora 31%G2 69%
The model gave 69% on G2 — the map was taken by Aurora.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Aurora 69%G2 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 66%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2