Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
M80#27 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoM80 pick
60%54%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Aurora +6%M80 · 9 maps
MirageAurora ban
57%55%
Aurora · 3 mapsnearly even +2%M80 · 7 maps
Dust2M80 ban
40%43%
Aurora · 6 mapsnearly even -3%M80 · 3 maps
NukeM80 ban
62%50%
Aurora · 9 mapsedge Aurora +12%M80 · 0 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
Aurora · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 8 maps
AnubisAurora pick
64%60%
Aurora · 7 mapsnearly even +4%M80 · 1 map
Cachepossible decider
43%67%
Aurora · 3 mapsedge M80 +24%M80 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanM80 remove Nuke
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickM80 take Inferno
5. BanM80 remove Dust2
6. BanAurora remove Mirage
DeciderCache (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
Aurora 50%M80 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Aurora 53%M80 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 81%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2