StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeNemesis pick
50%80%
Aurora · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +30%Nemesis · 11 maps
Dust2Aurora pick
50%50%
Aurora · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Nemesis · 8 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%44%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge Aurora +6%Nemesis · 14 maps
MirageAurora ban
50%71%
Aurora · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +21%Nemesis · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%60%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Nemesis · 11 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
70%50%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +20%Nemesis · 0 maps
OverpassNemesis ban
67%43%
Aurora · 2 mapsedge Aurora +24%Nemesis · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. PickNemesis take Nuke
5. BanNemesis remove Overpass
6. BanAurora remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:2
Aurora 18%Nemesis 82%
The model gave 82% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Aurora.
Dust2prediction missed14:16
Aurora 53%Nemesis 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Aurora 29%Nemesis 71%
The model gave 71% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 79%
Series resultAurora 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3