StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
44%67%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Vitality +23%Vitality · 11 maps
MirageVitality ban
62%50%
Aurora · 9 mapsedge Aurora +12%Vitality · 6 maps
Nukepossible decider
70%60%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +10%Vitality · 6 maps
AnubisAurora pick
60%33%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +27%Vitality · 5 maps
CacheVitality ban
56%57%
Aurora · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Vitality · 3 maps
InfernoAurora ban
56%57%
Aurora · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Vitality · 3 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%50%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Vitality +10%Vitality · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanVitality remove Mirage
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickVitality take Dust2
5. BanVitality remove Cache
6. BanAurora remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (70% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Aurora 77%Vitality 23%
The model gave 77% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Infernoprediction correct11:13
Aurora 45%Vitality 55%
The model gave 55% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Aurora 61%Vitality 39%
The model gave 61% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 62%
Series resultAurora 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3